Section 8 Spread: AZ — July 2026
HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rents (effective 2025-10-01) against market rents as of 2026-07-31, at 2 bedrooms.
Of 192 ZIP codes covered by both sources, 122 (63.5%) have a SAFMR above the market rent. The median ZIP sits at $133 a month. 53 clear the strong bar and 40 more clear the ordinary one.
Arizona has the highest rate of any state measured — nearly two ZIPs in three pay above market, against 55.2% in Texas and 48.4% in California — and the median ZIP is positive, which is true in Texas ($49) but not California (-$20). It is a smaller state by covered ZIP count, but the spread here is a general condition rather than a coastal exception.
Where the voucher pays most
| # | ZIP | City | SAFMR 2BR | Market rent | Spread / mo | Spread % | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85044 | Phoenix | $2,250 | $1,524 | $726 | 47.6% | $8,712 |
| 2 | 85031 | Phoenix | $1,700 | $1,069 | $631 | 59.0% | $7,572 |
| 3 | 85253 | Paradise Valley | $2,500 | $1,903 | $597 | 31.4% | $7,164 |
| 4 | 85307 | Glendale | $2,040 | $1,452 | $588 | 40.5% | $7,056 |
| 5 | 85022 | Phoenix | $1,980 | $1,394 | $586 | 42.0% | $7,032 |
| 6 | 85395 | Goodyear | $2,250 | $1,703 | $547 | 32.1% | $6,564 |
| 7 | 85054 | Phoenix | $2,470 | $1,925 | $545 | 28.3% | $6,540 |
| 8 | 85048 | Phoenix | $2,320 | $1,778 | $542 | 30.5% | $6,504 |
| 9 | 85305 | Glendale | $2,130 | $1,592 | $538 | 33.8% | $6,456 |
| 10 | 85374 | Surprise | $2,190 | $1,663 | $527 | 31.7% | $6,324 |
| 11 | 85355 | Waddell | $2,760 | $2,235 | $525 | 23.5% | $6,300 |
| 12 | 85283 | Tempe | $2,080 | $1,567 | $513 | 32.7% | $6,156 |
85044 (Ahwatukee, south Phoenix) carries the largest monthly gap in the state at $726.
$2,250 SAFMR − $1,524 market = $726/month (47.6%), $8,712 a year. Ratio 1.476. FMR area: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA.
85031 (west Phoenix) has the widest percentage gap on the page at 59%, and it is the cheapest ZIP in the top twelve at $1,069 — the combination that makes it the strongest proportional return here, since the acquisition cost scales with the market rent rather than with HUD's schedule.
$1,700 SAFMR − $1,069 market = $631/month (59.0%), $7,572 a year. Ratio 1.591. FMR area: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA.
85253 (Paradise Valley) is the opposite shape: the highest market rent in the top five at $1,903 and the narrowest percentage of the three, but still $597 a month.
$2,500 SAFMR − $1,903 market = $597/month (31.4%), $7,164 a year. Ratio 1.313. FMR area: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA.
By metro area
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA — 25 ZIPs, median spread $501
Every listed ZIP in the state sits in a single FMR area. SAFMRs are set per FMR area, so this is one metro-level fact expressed across 25 ZIP codes rather than 25 independent findings — which is worth knowing before treating them as a diversified set.
Where the sources disagree
No Arizona ZIP showed a gap wide enough to be treated as a source disagreement this month. Every spread above sits below the 1.75× ratio bar, which is a point in this state's favour: the findings are unremarkable in shape and simply consistent.
What this edition leaves out
68 qualifying ZIPs fall outside the 25-row table above. No Arizona ZIP has a published SAFMR without a corresponding market rent, so nothing was dropped for missing data.
How this is built. Sources: HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026 (https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr/fmr2026/fy2026_safmrs.xlsx); Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), published research data.
Every ZIP where both sources publish a figure is compared at 2 bedrooms. That anchor is measured, not assumed: a rent index blends all bedroom counts while HUD publishes each separately, and across all 8,543 covered ZIP codes the median ratio of market rent to SAFMR is 1.36 at 0BR, 1.25 at 1BR, 1.04 at 2BR, 0.81 at 3BR and 0.70 at 4BR. Anchoring one bedroom higher would show a "spread" in 86% of every ZIP code in the country.
A ZIP is listed when the SAFMR exceeds market rent by at least $100 a month AND 8% of that rent — both, because $150 on a $600 rent and $150 on a $3,000 rent are not the same finding. "Strong" is $250 and 18%. Where the SAFMR is 1.75× the market rent or more, the gap is reported separately as a source disagreement rather than ranked. At most 25 ZIPs appear and the remainder is counted.
SAFMRs are set once per federal fiscal year and fixed until the next October 1; market rents move monthly, so a spread narrows over a year without HUD changing anything. A published SAFMR is not a payment standard: housing authorities set theirs between 90% and 110% of it, and small-area standards are mandatory only in HUD-designated areas. Rubric section8-spread/v1. Not investment advice.